verbena-19

Tomgram: Rebecca Solnit on the Surprises of 2005

Tomdispatch is once again ahead of the crowd. Articles looking back on 2005 would normally begin to pile into your e-mail box in late December. But think about it -- what an unexpected year 2005 has already turned out to be, a year to dash certainties and predictions of all sorts. So Rebecca Solnit decided to plunge in early, taking up three striking, unpredicted events of this unfinished year in order to explore the ways in which, sometimes, from the depths of expectable gloom and doom strange and even wondrous possibilities emerge.

Solnit's initial essay on hope at this site, written in May 2003 just after much of the antiwar movement had folded its tent in despair, only a month after Baghdad fell to U.S. troops, became Hope in the Dark (due to appear in a revised edition in January), the only book for which Tomdispatch can claim responsibility. She suggested then that, when it came to history, "it's always too soon to go home." History, she added, "is like weather, not like checkers. A game of checkers ends. The weather never does." As we know, the weather also regularly holds surprises in the way a game of checkers never can; and in the unexpected lurk all sorts of fears, but always hope as well. Over two years later, she returns to this theme. What follows is the sort of essay you might expect from a writer whose newest book, A Field Guide to Getting Lost, explores the pleasures of disorientation. Given the year so far, perhaps by late December there will be five or six or seven events from out of the American blue to consider, with all sorts of added surprises, and an updated piece to be written. Tom


Three from Out of the Blue

Surprises of 2005 (So Far)
By Rebecca Solnit

"The smart thing is to prepare for the unexpected" said my most recent fortune-cookie advisory. Many people presume that the future will look more or less like the present, though that's the one thing we can assume isn't true. If some Cassandra had come to us in 1985 and declared that the death squads and dictators of Latin America would be replaced with left-leaning elected regimes and populist insurgencies, if she had prophesied the vanishing of the Soviet Union and the arrival of AIDS retrovirals, same-sex marriage and the Red Sox World Series victory, if she had warned us of pandemic fundamentalism and more dramatic climate change sooner, who would have heeded her? From the vantage point of 1985, 2005 is already wilder than science fiction and less credible, rife with countless small but deep changes as well as many sweeping ones. Of course who in 1965 would have imagined the real 1985, so like and yet unlike Orwell's 1984, with spreading information technologies,! shrinking public spheres, and changed social mores? Even from near at hand, the future throws curveballs, for few if any in the gloom of post-election 2004 anticipated the wild surprises of the first nine months of 2005.

Despair is full of certainty, the certainty that you know what's going to happen; and many seem to love certainty so much that they'll take it with despondency as a package deal. Think of those who, waiting for someone long overdue, habitually talk themselves into believing in the fatal crash or the adulterous abandonment -- atrocities they prefer to the uncertainty of a person shrouded in the mystery of absence. In the hangover after last November's election, many anti-Bush Americans almost seemed to prefer their own prognostications of doom and an eternally triumphant Republican party to preparing for the unexpected. Many were convinced that it was all over and George Bush would be riding high forever -- a somewhat perplexingly unlikely ground for despair.

After all, even had his ratings continued to fly high, his reign will, without a coup, only last through 2008. There always has been a future beyond that, even though much can be ravaged irrevocably in four years. But as it turns out we didn't have to wait those four years for the nightmarish moment of November 2004 to mutate into something unforeseen. The present may not be less dreadful for us, but it's certainly more so for Bush, and many things have changed in unexpected ways.

Out of the Woods: The Ivory-Billed Woodpecker

Click here to read more of this dispatch.

posted by Annamarie at 11:49 PM